Admitting you were wrong...

Sometimes, it's important to look in the mirror and say, "You know what? You were wrong."

Among those times:

"I just don't think Jim Edmonds is the answer in center either. He's not the player he was in Anaheim. He's not the player he was in St. Louis. The "juice" that the organization was wondering if Edmonds still had left... isn't there." ("Squeeze Bunts," 5/29/08)

* "Prediciton after one week: Ryan Theriot will lose his starting spot by the end of this season." ("Reflections on the first week of baseball," 4/7/08)

* "Marquis's history of an inflated ERA frightens me and Dempster's return to the starting rotation (where he was never terribly successful anyway) just doesn't make sense to me." ("Lilly, Z, Hill... and who?" 2/18/08)

My apologies to Messrs Edmonds, Theriot and Dempster....

But here's the thing...

You gotta love, Lou Pinella.

While Dusty would worry about things like walks clogging up the bases, Lou's smart enough to realize that one of the biggest concerns with this team (even though they have the best record in baseball) is an overworked pitching staff.

As of Sunday night, four relief pitchers for the Cubs had appeared in 25 games or more:

Carlos Marmol -- 33 games
Kerry Wood -- 33 games
Bob Howry -- 30 games
Michael Wuertz -- 28 games

Only three pitchers have appeared in more games this year than Marmol and Wood:

1. Luis Ayala -- WAS -- 35 games
1. Will Ohman -- ATL -- 35 games
3. Blaine Boyer -- ATL -- 34 games
4. Pedro Feliciano -- NYM -- 33 games
4. Heath Bell -- SD -- 33 games
4. Carlos Marmol -- CHC -- 33 games
4. Kerry Wood -- CHC -- 33 games

Meanwhile, Howry's number of appearances puts him around the top 20 in baseball. And Wuertz's puts him near the top 50.

That's a reason to be concerned, on multiple accounts:

1) Having your relievers pile up that number of appearances means you're running the risk that they'll be tired down the stretch, while is probably the time when they'll need to be sharpest.

I'm not necessarily worried about Howry or Wuertz. Both of these guys are veterans of the bullpen and understand how to pace themselves (Howry, in fact, was at his best down the stretch last year).

But I'm concerned about Marmol and Wood. Marmol has never had more than 59 appearances in a year; he'll eclipse that very soon. And Wood's career has been as a starter; I wonder how he'll handle 70-80 appearances in a season.

2) The number of appearances for those four relievers is an indication that the starting pitchers aren't going very deep into games. Among the starting rotation, here are the statistics for average length of outing (rounded to the nearest third of an inning):

Carlos Zambrano -- 6 2/3 innings
Ted Lilly -- 5 2/3 innings
Ryan Dempster -- 6 1/3 innings
Jason Marquis -- 5 2/3 innings
Sean Gallagher -- 5 1/3 innings

So, three of your five starters are lasting fewer than six innings on average. That's troubling. And it's the reason the bullpen is getting so overworked.

Solutions:

* Put more trust in Scott Eyre. His statistics - albeit in a limited role - are worthy (7 IP, 4 H, 1/10 BB/K, 0.00 ERA).
* Find someone among the likes of Neal Cotts, Kevin Hart, Carmen Pignatiello, Jose Ascanio, Sean Marshall, Chad Fox who can eat some innings and provide decent relief. Right now, most of that group hasn't been able to.
* Get Ted Lilly right. I think 5-6 innings is about all we can and should expect from Jason Marquis and Sean Gallagher. But Lilly needs to be a 6+ inning guy. If he can do that, it will ease the burden on the 'pen.

And then Lou can finally something else to be worried about.

Ten Things, after the 7-2 Cubs win over D-Backs...

1) Could it be that Alfonso Soriano is finally breaking out of his prolonged slump? He went 4-for-5, scored twice, drove in a run, and provided a spark with some aggressive baserunning.

Still, not to be a downer, but there are reasons for concern:

* Fox monitored his total pitches against how many he swung at. I think it finished at 17 pitches seen; 12 swings. Not exactly ideal for a leadoff man (haven't we been over this before?)

* He doesn't look healthy running. He looks like he's compensating when he runs, so it feels more like a hopping lumber, rather than a smooth sprint.

2) Solid effort by Dempster. Give the guy credit. I didn't buy him as a starter this year (and I know I wasn't alone), but he's been a solid No. 3 man.

However, what is up with his glove during his wind-up? Is it just me or is his left-right-left freakout with his glove way, WAY more pronounced this year?

3) Hard-luck no-decision for Arizona's Max Scherzer. But the kid's a future ace. If the D-Backs can lock up Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Micah Owings and Scherzer, they'll be a contender for many years to come.

4) How bad was the Cubs' baserunning today? Aramis' late jump from third on the Soto grounder was brutal. Reed Johnson was out by a day-and-a-half on D-Lee's potential sac fly. And Soriano's 'aggressiveness' was also inches from being FOUR baserunners thrown out at the plate in this game.

5) Carlos Marmol's stuff is flat-out nasty. He's going to be one heck of a closer one day. Soon.

6) Sure, he's been inconsistent on the hill. But it's nice to have Jason Marquis in the rotation, if for nothing more than he's a serviceable pinch runner and Lou doesn't have to burn someone else on the bench to save Daryle Ward from plodding around the bases.

7) You ever just get the feeling that a pitcher's style/wind-up/stuff is going to get crushed by a specific batter? I got that feeling when Brandon Medders was facing Aramis Ramirez. Just had this hunch A-Ram would hammer Medders. Result: RBI single smacked to right-center.

8) Randy Johnson goes tomorrow for the D-Backs. He's never, NEVER lost to the Cubs (12-0 lifetime). I sure hope that changes and that the lanky lefty gets lit up like the Las Vegas Strip. If for nothing more than he strikes me as a TOTAL TOOL.

9) How sweet would it be to sweep baseball's best team?

10) Before the series, Wrigleyville predicted the Cubs would take 2 of 3 from the D-Backs. Now I hope he's wrong!

Didn't think this was a post we would have to do, but...

...who should be in the starting rotation right now for the Cubs?

Your choices:

Carlos Zambrano

Ted Lilly

Rich Hill

Ryan Dempster

Jason Marquis

Sean Marshall

Jon Lieber

Sean Gallagher

Other

My opinion:

1) Zambrano (given)

2) Lilly (recovering)

3) Dempster (run support or for real?)

4) Marquis (streaky)

5) Marshall (deserving)

I prefer Lieber as the long reliever. He's a veteran and understands the role. I don't feel comfortable bringing Hill back yet, or giving Gallagher the shot yet. My thought: let's see if Marshall can eat up some innings.

Clutch!

What a great at-bat for Felix Pie Wednesday night. Not only did he drive home the game-winning run(s) against the Pirates, but, more importantly (at least to me), it came against a left-handed pitcher.

If Felix wants to be the everyday centerfielder, he has to hit against the southpaws in all situations (including crucial, tense ones like these). Wednesday was a great sign.

And a great game. Second straight extra-inning victory against the Pirates (on the road, no less). Sure they should have never let either game get to extra innings, but it says a lot about the character of this team that they still won both games.

Way to go, Cubs (even Ryan Dempster, who is making a lot of us eat crow right now).

The good, the bad, and the (very) ugly...

I have no idea what to make of Monday's game in Pittsburgh.

There was plenty of good:
* Winning a tight, extra-inning ballgame on the road
* Scoring 10 runs (including six in one inning), socking 13 hits and having the patience to draw 11 walks
* Derrek Lee and Kosuke Fukudome continuing to pulverize the ball
* A splendid outing from Jon Lieber out of the bullpen, showing everyone why he's valuable as a long reliever

And plenty of bad:
* Ted Lilly struggled again, not being able to hold down a seven-run lead or finish five complete innings
* Alfonso Soriano looks lost. Still.
* Felix Pie is starting to look like Corey Patterson. Over-swinging. Swinging at fastballs over his head. Not coming through in the clutch.
* With runners at second and third in the 10th inning, both Lee and Aramis Ramirez failed to put the ball in play, both striking out off Matt Capps (although Lee's called third strike was a horse manure call)

Plus, the ugly:
* Crucial errors by all of the infielders: Ramirez short-hopped a throw to Lee that allowed two runs to score, Ronny Cedeno air-mailed a throw that might have actually gone into the upper deck and Mark DeRosa booted a grounder that allowed the tying run to score
* Carmen Pignatiello might have sealed his ticket back to Iowa. Faced two batters Monday. Walked them both. On four pitches each. "Hello, Iowa, it's Jim Hendry. Is Sean Marshall there?"
* Awful fundamentals --

1) Leadoff double by Geovany Soto (a bright spot with three hits) and all Ronny Cedeno has to do is hit a grounder to the right side to get him to third. What does he do? Grounds out...to short. Soto stays put, doesn't score.

2) Leadoff walk to Ryan Theriot in the 10th inning. Can Soriano bunt him to second? No, of course not. But after Theriot steals second, at least Soriano can get him to third, right? No. Strikeout. Theriot doesn't score.

Again, I have no idea what to make of Monday's game in Pittsburgh. I'm thrilled the Cubs won. But I also know that truly great teams... don't let that game almost slip away.

Observations from the Ballpark (Part III)

Snuck over to Mesa to catch the thrilling 7-6 Cubs' victory over the Rangers on Monday. Yeah, I know, it's spring training. But it was still a trip to see a walk-off victory for the Cubs. Eric Patterson had the game-winning single, driving home Felix Pie in the final frame.

Here's what jumped out at me:

* Ryan Dempster, just named the No. 3 starter, looked very hittable. Lacked command and gave up a number of hard-hit balls. I really don't like him in the rotation.

* Felix Pie has been the biggest (and most pleasant) surprise of the spring. Went 3-for-3 today, including a nifty bunt single and some hard hit gappers. He's played awesome since getting his testicle un-twisted and deserves the starting spot in center. His triple in the ninth (setting up Patterson's single) was a thing of beauty.

* Jon Lieber is enjoyable to watch. His philosophy: 1) Here 2) Hit it. He'll give up a two-run homer every now and again (which he did today), but he's going to throw strikes and eat up innings. Wish he had been the No. 3.

* Impressing me with their bat: Aramis Ramirez, Daryle Ward (who has never been retired in games I've attended), Patterson

* Concerning me with their bat: Derrek Lee, Mike Fontenot, Matt Murton

Decisions, decisions...

It's official.

Ryan Dempster = No. 3 starter

Jason Marquis = No. 5 starter

Kerry Wood = closer

Carlos Marmol = one of the game's best set-up men

Jon Lieber = long reliever

Sean Marshall = likely screwed and heading to AAA

Thoughts: Fine with Marquis. Hopeful for Wood (but not counting on him to stay healthy; quit doing that long ago). Concerned about Dempster. Sympathetic for Marshall. Thinking Lieber got the shaft.

Leavings...

* The bullpen is thinning. Out the door to AAA are Jose Ascanio (pictured), Sean Gallagher and Neal Cotts. Ascanio (indirectly traded for Jacque Jones; Jones to Detroit for Omar Infante who was then shipped to Atlanta for Ascanio) didn't impress me in the games I saw him pitch. Gallagher's just trade-bait with the O's. And Cotts? Well, Cotts is a batting practice pitcher who is still somehow employed by a major league team because he throws with the wrong arm.

* The spring is also done for Josh Kroeger (some nice pop in that kid's bat) and Koyie Hill (Paul Bako with a cooler name). Both were reassigned to the minor league camp.

* Rumor is Lou will decide on his starting rotation by Monday. My vote is for Lieber and Marquis. But my gut says it will be Lieber and Dempster. Oh, Canada! He'll also announce his closer. Let's hope Kerry Wood doesn't twist his testicle when he gets the news.

Observations from the Ballpark (Part II)

Caught the Cubs-Royals today in Suprise, Arizona. Cubs were flat-out dominant. Won it 13-1. Out-hit the Royals 21-2. Looked like the varsity against the JV. And the scary part is that the Royals played most of their regulars!

Here are my observations:

Offense:

Awesome. The Cubs scored in every inning except two and did so without the need for the long ball. Eric Patterson hit a two-run homer late, but for the most part, the explosion came mostly from line drives ripped into the gap.

Daryle Ward was unstoppable. Went 4-for-4 and every single hit was powdered. Felix Pie and Patterson shot balls into the gap a few times, and Alex Cintron, Alfonso Soriano and Matt Murton hit balls hard as well.

I really like Micah Hoffpauir. He won't make the team because he's behind Derrek Lee (and Ward and Mark DeRosa can back Lee up), but he hits a ton. Might be valuable come September as a late-season call-up when rosters expand.

Defense:

Pretty much perfect. Team made every play it needed to. Only play of note was a double by Alex Gordon; Sam Fuld played the ball off the wall extremely well.

Pitching:

Ryan Dempster started and his numbers will look pretty good (4 innings, 1 hit, 1 run) and he didn't pitch badly. But I did find one thing worrisome and I'll get to that in the "concerned me" section.

Otherwise, the bullpen was filthy good. Kerry Wood looked unhittable in an inning of work. Carlos Marmol closed the game with a 1-2-3 inning. Even Michael Wuertz and Neal Cotts worked scoreless innings. Kansas City looked overmatched.

Impressed me: Pie and Patterson, two players who look like they may have turned the corner. Patterson looks very comfortable both at the plate and in the field (he played nine innings at second base today). Kid brings a lot to the table.

And Pie is a different player from last year. Much more under control at the plate. Shorter, more compact swing and it's making a huge difference. He's crushed the ball at every game I've been to.

Depressed me: Kansas City, as a whole. What a terrible team.

Starting pitcher Brett Tomko got lit up like the Fourth of July. But it didn't help that the defense behind him was wearing iron gloves. They dropped a couple flyballs and did nothing to pick Tomko up.

Particularly bad was former Cub Mark Grudzielanek. Dropped a flyball, made a throwing error, had the ball fall out of his hand on a relay-play. Atrocious.

Intrigued me: It's clear that Lou Pinella and Jim Hendry are going to have some tough decisions to make... and that's ideal. I've now seen three of the four pitchers battling for two spots (I've only missed Jason Marquis) and they've all impressed me. Picking between Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall, Ryan Dempster and Marquis aint going to be easy.

Nor will it be easy to say goodbye to either Cintron, Ronny Cedeno, Mike Fontenot or Patterson. They all can't make this team, but each is hitting a ton and playing solid defense.

Concerned me: All right, here's what worried me about Dempster. He was in control for the first two innings. But then, in the top of the third inning, the Cubs sent nine hitters to the plate. It was a long inning and I was anxious to see how Dempster would react to the long layoff. He reacted, well, horribly. Walk. Double. Hit batter. Hard-hit groundout. Walk. Double play. He completely lost command and got bailed out by a ground ball hit right at someone.

In a tight race between four pitchers, it's the small things that will make a difference... and that seemed like a big deal to me.

Marquis, Lieber are fan favorites...

A poll on the Cubs' official team site asks which combo should fill out the starting rotation, joining Zambrano, Lilly and Hill:

Lieber & Dempster
Lieber & Marquis
Lieber & Marshall
Dempster & Marquis
Dempster & Marshall
Marquis & Marshall

As of 10:34 p.m. (MST), with 15,777 votes, the results looked like this:

Lieber & Dempster 17%
Lieber & Marquis 28%
Lieber & Marshall 20%
Dempster & Marquis 11%
Dempster & Marshall 7%
Marquis & Marshall 17%



Obviously the largest group of people agreed with my post here...

And interestingly, if you add up the percentages for each pitcher's possibilities in the poll (i.e. Lieber's total when adding his percentage when combined with Dempster and Marquis and Marshall), you get these results:

Lieber: 65%
Dempster: 35%
Marquis: 56%
Marshall: 44%

What can we learn? Cub fans don't like Canadians.

Sorry, Dempster.

The Best Moments of 2007 (#3)

Ryan Dempster induces game-ending double play against Astros. September 12, 2007. Let's be honest, this could have been another in a long line of Cubs collapses. With Chicago leading Houston 3-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Mark Loretta singled off first base. It was a quirky, unlucky bounce off the bag that Cub fans are used to by now. With billy goats, black cats, and Bartman dancing through their heads, fans watched Mike Lamb triple to deep right, scoring Loretta and cutting the Cubs lead to one. It was happening again. Another victory was about to be snatched away.

But this is why the 2007 Cubs were different. A weak groundout to third was followed by a one-out walk, setting up Eric Munson for the Astros. Munson grounded to first. Derrek Lee snagged the grounder, threw to second for one out, and then watched as the return throw to closer Ryan Dempster beat Munson by the tiniest of margins.

It was the sweetest double play of the year. It put the Cubs back into a first-place tie with the Brewers. It let us know that this team wasn't like all the Cub teams we had seen before.

Lilly, Z, Hill...and who?

The status of the starting rotation can be split in half. One half: certain. The other half: very uncertain.

Certain:

#1: Carlos Zambrano
#2: Ted Lilly
#3: ?
#4: Rich Hill (the Cubs third-best starter, but Lou Pinella has said he wants to break up the lefties
#5: ?

Analysis:

* Pinella has said he wants the #3 starter to be a right-hander. So it will likely come down to Jon Lieber, Ryan Dempster, and Jason Marquis. I'd prefer Lieber, who has consistently shown he can throw strikes and keep his team in games. Marquis's history of an inflated ERA frightens me and Dempster's return to the starting rotation (where he was never terribly successful anyway) just doesn't make sense to me.

* Add lefty Sean Marshall to the mix at the #5 spot in the rotation. I'm split here between him and Marquis. While I think Marshall is the better pitcher, Marquis has found a way to win double-digit games for most of his career (15, 13, 14, 12 wins over the last four seasons). So, I'll stick with Marquis and pray the wind isn't blowing out at Wrigley.

Tentatively (reserving the right to change my plea after spring training), I suggest: Z, Lilly, Lieber, Hill, Marquis.