The Rise and Fall of Rich Hill

As recently as March 12, 2008, I called Rich Hill: "(Our) No. 3 starter who might be a future No. 1 or at least No. 2" ("Coco Cubbie," 3/12/08).

Wow, have things fallen apart since then.

This is a guy who went 11-8 last year with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Opposing batters only hit .235 off the guy and he struck out nearly three times as many people as he walked (183 to 63).

For comparison's sake, those numbers were virtually identical to Chicago's No. 2 starter Ted Lilly, who got a little more publicity because his record in 2007 was 15-8 rather than 11-8. Lilly had a 3.83, a 1.14 WHIP, a .236 average against, and struck out just over three times as many people as he walked (174 to 55).

Yet, Hill just fell apart this year. Now, the Cubs are sending him back to Mesa for additional instruction.

It should be noted, this is a control and command issue. Nobody was hitting Hill when he was up with the big club this year. Opposing batters hit just .191 against him and he had only allowed two homers in 19.2 innings.

But he was walking nearly a batter an inning and had given the free pass to more batters than he had struck out (18 to 15).

You have to believe it's a mechanics thing. The high leg-kick screams lack-of-balance when Hill is in his wind-up. Hopefully, it's correctable. I'd be more concerned if it's a mental thing, ala Rick Ankiel.

Either way, forget what I said on March 12; Hill is probably never going to be a No. 1 starter. I would just be happy if he's a serviceable No. 4 or No. 5 who can eat up a few innings in a Cubs' uniform.

Out on the farm...

The Cubs are playing well, even at AAA Iowa. The squad is 40-29 and is leading the North division in the PCL. They have the third-best record in the league, behind Salt Lake City (Angels) and Sacramento (A's).

Some noteworthy statistics:

Felix Pie continues to struggle. He's hitting just .198 and the sample size is significant (116 at-bats).

Matt Murton has a decent batting average (.298) but has not been hitting for power. His slugging is a mediocre .382 and he has hit only one home run in 191 at-bats. If you're looking for a reason why Micah Hoffpauir and Eric Patterson earned the recent call-ups, I would imagine it's that.

Perhaps putting up the best numbers is right fielder Josh Kroeger. He's hitting a respectable .292, leads the club in homers (8) and is second in RBIs (31).

On the pitching front, I wouldn't expect Rich Hill to be back with the big club any time soon. He's still struggling with his control in the minors (24 walks in 25.1 inning, nearly one an inning) and his WHIP is atrocious (1.70).

Nor will Carmen Pignatiello. His command is better than it was during his short stint with the Cubs to start the season, but he's still getting smacked around. His ERA is near six (5.95 ERA) and he's giving up more than a hit an inning (22 hits allowed in 19.2 innings).

I would be interested to know more about a kid named Mike Burns. He's just 5-4, but other statistics jump off the page. His ERA is just 2.55 and he has struck out five times as many batters as he has walked (55 K/11 B). Those 55 strikeouts also came in just 67 innings and he's got a minuscule WHIP of 0.97.

Anyone know any more about Burns?

Squeeze Bunts...

* Out on the farm in Iowa, Rich Hill had to leave his last start. Team says it was back stiffness. The way Hill has pitched down there (1-2, 3.38 ERA, eight walks in 13 1/3 innings), I don't see him back in the bigs any time soon.

I love Lou's quote about Hill though: "Let's not make it too serious. It might not be serious at all."

Sounds a little like wishful thinking to me. 'If I don't think it's bad, than it can't be bad!'

* Lou says Daryle Ward is likely heading to the disabled list with a bulging disk. And his replacement on the roster? Not Matt Murton, but Micah Hoffpauir. The spring training star is recovering from his early-season injury and will probably get his first chance in the majors.

* Nice to see Sean Gallagher's first win, after pitching six innings of one-run ball against the Pirates. Really fascinating story on the Cubs' website about Gallagher's weight. Apparently Kerry Wood is the next Jenny Craig.

Didn't think this was a post we would have to do, but...

...who should be in the starting rotation right now for the Cubs?

Your choices:

Carlos Zambrano

Ted Lilly

Rich Hill

Ryan Dempster

Jason Marquis

Sean Marshall

Jon Lieber

Sean Gallagher

Other

My opinion:

1) Zambrano (given)

2) Lilly (recovering)

3) Dempster (run support or for real?)

4) Marquis (streaky)

5) Marshall (deserving)

I prefer Lieber as the long reliever. He's a veteran and understands the role. I don't feel comfortable bringing Hill back yet, or giving Gallagher the shot yet. My thought: let's see if Marshall can eat up some innings.

Will Iowa wake Rich Hill up?

It's funny. During spring training, we speculated endlessly about the starting rotation.

Marquis?
Lieber?
Marshall?
Dempster?

Who knew the biggest question mark would be... Rich Hill?

I don't know what happened.

Here's his line:
W-L 1-0
ERA 4.12
K 15
Walks 18
WHIP 1.58

It's, obviously, the last two statistics (bolded) that are most troublesome. Mostly because they are so uncharacteristic.

Let's start with walks. In 2006, Hill walked 39 men in 99.1 innings. That's one walk for every 2+ innings. In 2007, Hill walked just 63 men in 195 innings. That's good for one walk every 3 innings. Now, in 2008, Hill has given a free pass to 18 batters in just 19.2 innings. That's almost a walk an inning.

Hill's WHIP (walks + hits/innings pitched) is also troubling, again, mostly because it's so unexpected. Great pitchers usually have a WHIP between 1.00 and 1.10. Really good ones tend to keep theirs below 1.20. Hill, despite being a .500 pitcher in 2006 and 2007, showed flashes of potential with a 1.23 WHIP (2006) and 1.19 WHIP (2007).

While your win-loss record can be deceiving (depending on your run support), your WHIP is a pretty good indicator of the trouble you're getting yourself into. And Hill's WHIP over the past two seasons indicated he had the talent to be a front-line starter.

So what happened? Mechanics? Mental? Eyesight? Whatever it is, I hope he figures it out in Iowa, which, by the way, is where I think he belongs.

If he was getting whacked around by major league hitters, it'd be a different story (because even if he went down and started getting minor leaguers out, he'd still come back and wonder if he could get major leaguers out anymore).

But the strike zone in the minors is the same as in majors. Hopefully, Hill can find it there and bring it back with him to Chicago. And start returning those numbers to where they used to be.

Question...

...who is more likely to break out of their slump quickest?

A) Rich Hill

B) Ted Lilly

C) Bob Howry

I vote for Lilly.

I worry about Hill.

I don't think I've ever seen Howry smile. Not once.

Coco Cubbie...

Interesting piece from the Boston Globe...

They say the Cubs are interested in trading for Red Sox outfielder Coco Crisp, but that the Sox have no interest in Jason Marquis in return (nor do they want outfielder Sam Fuld).

Crisp is a hell of a defensive centerfielder and he could be serviceable, but I wouldn't give up more than mid-level prospect for him. Considering what kind of regard the Red Sox hold him in (he lost his starting job to Jacoby Ellsbury and Boston would prefer not to pay him to be a back-up), he's not worth any more than that.

What absolutely cracks me up are some of the responses from the Boston fans in the comments' section. Talk about delusional:

"Rich Hill or bust Cubbies." OR

"If they Cubbies are serious, as they need help in the outfield, then how
about either Geovany Soto (c) or Hosh Vitters 3rd base...Sox would have to throw
in a minor pospect with Coco. Vitters is a 18 year old hitting machine and can
replace lowell in few years." OR

"i would trade coco for a starting pitcher an some bullpen help to go along
wit paplebon an okajima"

Gotta love the Rex Sox fans. Here's our back-up, punchin-judy outfielder, and in exchange, it would be reasonable in our minds to ask for:

A) Your No. 3 starter who might be a future No. 1 or at least No. 2

B) Your current starting catcher who you consider your backstop of the future

C) Your top third base prospect and one of the prized blue-chips of your farm system

D) Capable starting pitching AND relief pitching

It's these same loons who post on message boards and throw out ridiculously one-sided trades where quantity is supposed to substitute for quality.

'What about Albert Pujols,' they'll say, for 'Ryan Dempster, Michael Wuertz, Ronny Cedeno, Henry Blanco, and Jake Fox.' And then they'll always, ALWAYS, end the post with "It could happen!" and then probably make the new Cubs line-up with their projected trade factored in.

Live Blogging (Cubs v. Brewers) - Part 4

* Decent little outing for Tim Lahay. Pitched 1 1/3 perfect innings (including a big two-out strikeout to clean up Rich Hill's mess).

He and Carmen Pignatiello are making a bit of a push to make the team in the 'pen.

* Les Walrond has not. I don't expect him to last the week. And I don't see him ever making much of a contribution at the major league level.

* I really like how Aramis Ramirez looks. He looks very well built and in shape to start the season. (Plus, he just lined his second double off the wall in left-center).

Live Blogging (Cubs v. Brewers) - Part 3

* Wonderful. As soon as I declare the Pie-Fuld duel over, assistant general manager Randy Bush announces that Pie is having surgery today to repair his twisted testicle (I'd like to nominate 'bent-up ball-sack' as the slang term for that injury). He'll probably miss 3-5 days.

* Rich Hill, trying to pitch out of another jam, just walked pitcher Dave Bush with two outs. Inexcusable. And Lou let him know that. He just got yanked.

* I know it's spring training and numbers don't mean much. But somebody, somewhere should give some props to minor league infielder Casey McGehee. Kid's hitting .636 (7-for-11, 3 doubles) for the Cubs this spring.

Live Blogging (Cubs v. Brewers) - Part 2

* I think we can officially end any talks of a Felix Pie-Sam Fuld centerfield battle. Pie is hitting .321 (9-for-28, 2 homers, 6 runs batted in) this spring, while Fuld is struggling at .133 (2-for-15, 2 singles).

I like Fuld. He played great in the Arizona Fall League and everyone remembers the great catch late last season. But this battle's over.

* This quickly turned into an awful outing for Rich Hill. In the third inning, he gave four runs on four hits and a walk. And the Brewers weren't getting cheap hits. There were some hellacious rods down the line.

Hill walked off the field at the end of the inning looking at his fingers. Wonder if he had a blister or something else bothering him?

* Loved this exchange between Len Kasper and pitching coach Larry Rothschild:
Len: "Larry, has Lou (Pinella) mellowed?"
Larry: "Next question..."

The Best Moments of 2007 (#1)

A-Ram's walk-off bomb deflates Brewers, launches Cubs. June 29, 2007. This is when I knew the Cubs might have something. After Rich Hill gave up five runs to Milwaukee in the first inning, he and four Cubs' relievers then combined to shut out the Brewers for the rest of the game.

Meanwhile, Chicago's offense chipped away at the Brew-Crew's early lead, setting up Aramis Ramirez with two outs in the ninth and the Cubs now trailing by one.

Len Kasper had the brilliant call:

"The pitch to Aramis. There's a drive. Deep left-center! Cubs win!! They win it!! Ramirez, two-run shot. Ohhhh, baby!!! Can you believe it???" UNBELIEVABLE."

The victory was the seventh-straight for the Cubs. The homer became an instant classic. It was also the #1 moment of the year.

Here's a little of the celebration...

Lilly, Z, Hill...and who?

The status of the starting rotation can be split in half. One half: certain. The other half: very uncertain.

Certain:

#1: Carlos Zambrano
#2: Ted Lilly
#3: ?
#4: Rich Hill (the Cubs third-best starter, but Lou Pinella has said he wants to break up the lefties
#5: ?

Analysis:

* Pinella has said he wants the #3 starter to be a right-hander. So it will likely come down to Jon Lieber, Ryan Dempster, and Jason Marquis. I'd prefer Lieber, who has consistently shown he can throw strikes and keep his team in games. Marquis's history of an inflated ERA frightens me and Dempster's return to the starting rotation (where he was never terribly successful anyway) just doesn't make sense to me.

* Add lefty Sean Marshall to the mix at the #5 spot in the rotation. I'm split here between him and Marquis. While I think Marshall is the better pitcher, Marquis has found a way to win double-digit games for most of his career (15, 13, 14, 12 wins over the last four seasons). So, I'll stick with Marquis and pray the wind isn't blowing out at Wrigley.

Tentatively (reserving the right to change my plea after spring training), I suggest: Z, Lilly, Lieber, Hill, Marquis.