Out on the farm...

The Cubs are playing well, even at AAA Iowa. The squad is 40-29 and is leading the North division in the PCL. They have the third-best record in the league, behind Salt Lake City (Angels) and Sacramento (A's).

Some noteworthy statistics:

Felix Pie continues to struggle. He's hitting just .198 and the sample size is significant (116 at-bats).

Matt Murton has a decent batting average (.298) but has not been hitting for power. His slugging is a mediocre .382 and he has hit only one home run in 191 at-bats. If you're looking for a reason why Micah Hoffpauir and Eric Patterson earned the recent call-ups, I would imagine it's that.

Perhaps putting up the best numbers is right fielder Josh Kroeger. He's hitting a respectable .292, leads the club in homers (8) and is second in RBIs (31).

On the pitching front, I wouldn't expect Rich Hill to be back with the big club any time soon. He's still struggling with his control in the minors (24 walks in 25.1 inning, nearly one an inning) and his WHIP is atrocious (1.70).

Nor will Carmen Pignatiello. His command is better than it was during his short stint with the Cubs to start the season, but he's still getting smacked around. His ERA is near six (5.95 ERA) and he's giving up more than a hit an inning (22 hits allowed in 19.2 innings).

I would be interested to know more about a kid named Mike Burns. He's just 5-4, but other statistics jump off the page. His ERA is just 2.55 and he has struck out five times as many batters as he has walked (55 K/11 B). Those 55 strikeouts also came in just 67 innings and he's got a minuscule WHIP of 0.97.

Anyone know any more about Burns?

One word:

NO!

Felix Pie deserves better.

Four surprises...

1) How bad the Padres are. San Diego has consistently been one of those teams for the last five years that, despite having inferior talent, seems to hang around in playoff contention.

Not this year. They're now 14-25 and looked awful in last night's 12-3 loss to the Cubs.

I wager Bud Black might be unemployed by the end of the year.

2) Shawn Estes is still in the league. Seriously, I follow baseball pretty well, but I was certain Estes had retired like four years ago. After his struggles with the Cubs in 2003, I figured the end was near. And now I find out he's starting tonight against the Cubs. Wow.

(Note: After checking out Baseball Reference, Estes barely pitched in the majors in 2006 and 2007, spending most of that time in the Padres' minor league system. Guess you got to give the guy a little credit for working to come back).

3) The Cubs are considering signing Jim Edmonds. Let me echo what was said here, here and here: Edmonds is washed-up. He proved it in San Diego. Let's not sign another player hoping he'll magically return to his prime in Chicago.

Not going to happen. I'd rather have Felix Pie swinging at high fastballs above his head and Reed Johnson tapping back to the mound every time up than have Jim Edmonds on the ballclub.

4) Ryne Sandberg was suspended for three games, after confronting the opposing manager during a Class A game. And, apparently, it's not the first time Ryno's been in trouble. He bumped an umpire last year and has been ejected three times this year.

It's really, really hard for me to imagine Sandberg getting worked up about... anything. Wish there was some YouTube video.

Confession...

I had already started formulating a bench-Reed-Johnson, give-Felix-Pie-a-chance post when Johnson smacked his game-tying two-run homer off Juan Cruz on Sunday.

Pretty impressive homer from Johnson for a couple different reasons:

1) The wind was blowing in pretty fierce. I agreed with Len & Bob; I figured only the big boppers would have a chance at a homer on Sunday. But Johnson really gave it a ride.

2) Reed's prior swings were really weak. Just a strikeout and a couple weak grounders so far that day.

(I should add that I still think Felix deserves a chance to start a full series, especially if it's against three right-handed hurlers)

Cubs 7 Mets 1

What a truly satisfying 7-1 victory over the New York Mets on Monday. Even though the team has been playing wonderfully so far this year, this particular game was validation to me that the team's for real. Why?

Beat a good club.

Beat a good pitcher.

Came through in the clutch.

Did the little things better than the opponent.

Things I liked:

1) Z's outing. Carlos Zambrano, although a bit jumpy, was lights-out. Great observation by Orel on the ESPN broadcast, pointing out that Z was hitting his spots so well that it was "either ball or black." You'll win a lot of games that way.

2) Aramis Ramirez is going to power this team. Any illusions that Aramis was slumping are over. His swing looks sharp and, more importantly, his plate discipline is back.

3) Clutch, CLUTCH at-bats in the eighth inning. Kosuke Fukudome's marathon at-bat against Aaron Heilman was a thing of beauty. Ronny Cedeno's rip into centerfield was impressive, especially given the tense situation. And Felix Pie's rocket into right was exactly what everyone wants from Pie: a smooth, compact swing. Pure magic.

4) Smart aggression. With Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado struggling, it was pretty obvious that David Wright was the hitter in the Mets' lineup that could have beaten the Cubs. But instead of nibbling and pitching around him, Z hit his spots (and they were smart spots) against Wright and registered a strikeout and a double play. Awesome.

Great to be a Cub fan right now!

Clutch!

What a great at-bat for Felix Pie Wednesday night. Not only did he drive home the game-winning run(s) against the Pirates, but, more importantly (at least to me), it came against a left-handed pitcher.

If Felix wants to be the everyday centerfielder, he has to hit against the southpaws in all situations (including crucial, tense ones like these). Wednesday was a great sign.

And a great game. Second straight extra-inning victory against the Pirates (on the road, no less). Sure they should have never let either game get to extra innings, but it says a lot about the character of this team that they still won both games.

Way to go, Cubs (even Ryan Dempster, who is making a lot of us eat crow right now).

The good, the bad, and the (very) ugly...

I have no idea what to make of Monday's game in Pittsburgh.

There was plenty of good:
* Winning a tight, extra-inning ballgame on the road
* Scoring 10 runs (including six in one inning), socking 13 hits and having the patience to draw 11 walks
* Derrek Lee and Kosuke Fukudome continuing to pulverize the ball
* A splendid outing from Jon Lieber out of the bullpen, showing everyone why he's valuable as a long reliever

And plenty of bad:
* Ted Lilly struggled again, not being able to hold down a seven-run lead or finish five complete innings
* Alfonso Soriano looks lost. Still.
* Felix Pie is starting to look like Corey Patterson. Over-swinging. Swinging at fastballs over his head. Not coming through in the clutch.
* With runners at second and third in the 10th inning, both Lee and Aramis Ramirez failed to put the ball in play, both striking out off Matt Capps (although Lee's called third strike was a horse manure call)

Plus, the ugly:
* Crucial errors by all of the infielders: Ramirez short-hopped a throw to Lee that allowed two runs to score, Ronny Cedeno air-mailed a throw that might have actually gone into the upper deck and Mark DeRosa booted a grounder that allowed the tying run to score
* Carmen Pignatiello might have sealed his ticket back to Iowa. Faced two batters Monday. Walked them both. On four pitches each. "Hello, Iowa, it's Jim Hendry. Is Sean Marshall there?"
* Awful fundamentals --

1) Leadoff double by Geovany Soto (a bright spot with three hits) and all Ronny Cedeno has to do is hit a grounder to the right side to get him to third. What does he do? Grounds out...to short. Soto stays put, doesn't score.

2) Leadoff walk to Ryan Theriot in the 10th inning. Can Soriano bunt him to second? No, of course not. But after Theriot steals second, at least Soriano can get him to third, right? No. Strikeout. Theriot doesn't score.

Again, I have no idea what to make of Monday's game in Pittsburgh. I'm thrilled the Cubs won. But I also know that truly great teams... don't let that game almost slip away.

Cubbies in Fantasyland

According to Yahoo! Fantasy, Kosuke Fukudome is the most valuable Cub right now in terms of fantasy production.

Kosuke Fukudome
Overall Fantasy Rank: 6th in MLB

Derrek Lee
Overall Fantasy Rank: 20th in MLB

Mark DeRosa
Overall Fantasy Rank: 157th in MLB

Geovany Soto
Overall Fantasy Rank: 187th in MLB

Aramis Ramirez
Overall Fantasy Rank: 212th in MLB

Ryan Theriot
Overall Fantasy Rank: 707th in MLB

Felix Pie
Overall Fantasy Rank: 752nd in MLB

Alfonso Soriano
Overall Fantasy Rank: 999th in MLB

Yes, Soriano, 999th. Almost one thousand players have been more productive than you so far this year. Perhaps you might want to work on that...

Reflections on the first week of baseball...

* For the Cubs to be at .500 right now (3-3) is an accomplishment. As poorly as they've swung the bat this first week, finishing up even is a feat.

* Things that didn't carry over from spring training:
- Derrek Lee's slump
- Felix Pie's hot hitting

* Things that did carry over from spring training:
- Carlos Zambrano's stellar stuff
- Bob Howry's scuffling

* Most pleasant surprise: Kosuke Fukudome excelling in all categories
* Biggest disappointment: Alfonso Soriano can't hit outside the leadoff spot and no one knows why

* Prediciton after one week: Ryan Theriot will lose his starting spot by the end of this season
* Prediction for a career: Carlos Marmol will eventually be one of the game's top five closers

* Favorite moment: Fukudome's three-run homer off Gagne in the season opener

Opening Day!

Welcome to the baseball season!

But not the way we wanted...

Brewers 4 Cubs 3 (10 innings)

Observations on the first game (bearing in mind that it is just one game and not necessarily a microcosm of what the entire season will be):

* The top of the order has to be better or this team will go nowhere.

Ryan Theriot: 0-for-5

Alfonso Soriano: 0-for-5

That won't fly.

* Anyone else think Derrek Lee looks a bit listless? Not so much worried about the slight swing troubles as I am about how apathetic he appears. What's up?

* Doesn't need to be said, but I will anyway: Kosuke Fukudome was AWESOME. Loved the crowds' energy behind him; loved how he produced.

* Let's hope that was first-game jitters from Felix Pie. Because he did everything that Corey Patterson used to do to drive us nuts (struck out too much, swung at pitches over his head, looked over-matched in clutch situations).

* Carlos Zambrano really does look more fit. And his stuff was filthy. Movement was excellent. He deserved a run to make him a winner.

* Obviously, Kerry Wood's outing is frightening. Not so much that he was wild and looked very hittable, but more so about his demeanor. I think we can agree that a closer should have a nastiness to him (and a short memory). I thought Wood looked nervous instead. That can't be.

* And Bob Howry needs to work out his mess too.

* Ben Sheets would win a Cy Young if he could just stay healthy. No doubt about it.

* The Brewers are going to be tough this year. I foresee a closer division than most do. I'd like to think the Cubs can prevail, but I don't think it will be by much.

Heaps of praise from Sports Illustrated...

Sports Illustrated's baseball preview issue is extremely kind to the Cubs. Their prediction:

Chicago Cubs, 91-71, 1st in Central (by 4 games over Dusty's Reds)

NLDS: Cubs over Diamondbacks
NLCS: Cubs over Rockies
World Series: Tigers over Cubs

Last time SI was glowing so much over the Cubs was back in 2004. They put them on the cover and had them in the World Series.

And we all know how that bloody season turned out.

By the way, the most interesting thing in the preview was this suggestion (under the headline "Consider this a modest proposal"):

"...(t)he Cubs should split the leadoff spot between centerfielder Felix Pie (.466 OBP against righthanded pitchers at Triple A Iowa last year) and second baseman Mark DeRosa (career .367 OBP against lefties)."

Interesting.

Observations from the Ballpark (Part III)

Snuck over to Mesa to catch the thrilling 7-6 Cubs' victory over the Rangers on Monday. Yeah, I know, it's spring training. But it was still a trip to see a walk-off victory for the Cubs. Eric Patterson had the game-winning single, driving home Felix Pie in the final frame.

Here's what jumped out at me:

* Ryan Dempster, just named the No. 3 starter, looked very hittable. Lacked command and gave up a number of hard-hit balls. I really don't like him in the rotation.

* Felix Pie has been the biggest (and most pleasant) surprise of the spring. Went 3-for-3 today, including a nifty bunt single and some hard hit gappers. He's played awesome since getting his testicle un-twisted and deserves the starting spot in center. His triple in the ninth (setting up Patterson's single) was a thing of beauty.

* Jon Lieber is enjoyable to watch. His philosophy: 1) Here 2) Hit it. He'll give up a two-run homer every now and again (which he did today), but he's going to throw strikes and eat up innings. Wish he had been the No. 3.

* Impressing me with their bat: Aramis Ramirez, Daryle Ward (who has never been retired in games I've attended), Patterson

* Concerning me with their bat: Derrek Lee, Mike Fontenot, Matt Murton

Thoughts on the 'Fantasy' Cubs (Part I)

Analysis of the Cubs hitters from a fantasy baseball perspective:

Alfonso Soriano - have him as the second-best outfielder available (behind Matt Holliday). But I do think people get a little scared off by his meager RBI totals last year and his leg problems (which might cripple his stolen base output). I've already turned down a Soriano-Bedard for Holliday trade because I was worried about those things.

Derrek Lee - have him in the second-tier of first baseman (along with Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira and Travis Hafner and behind Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, David Ortiz and Ryan Howard). I've always wanted D-Lee on my team, but he's invariably picked the pick right before I want to make him my choice. Probably fell from the top-tier because he hasn't been hitting for the same kind of power as he did during his near-MVP season.

Aramis Ramirez - second-tier third baseman, sixth overall, behind Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera and Garrett Atkins. If only he could run...

Kosuke Fukudome - seems to be going in the mid-to-late rounds in most drafts. Not bad to take a flyer on, but he probably won't be a great fantasy player because he likely won't hit for a ton of power and takes a lot of walks (worthless in fantasy).

Ryan Theriot - some people like his 30+ stolen bases. Then they see his .260ish batting average and re-assess.

Mark DeRosa - not drafted in most 12-team leagues.

Geovany Soto - lot of people have him as the seventh- or eighth-best catcher this year. I'm not willing to do that after just a couple dozen at-bats last year. I've been sticking to some proven catchers in late rounds at a position I don't particularly care about anyway.

Felix Pie - undrafted.

Likes and dislikes...

What I liked from Sunday's Cubs-Angels game in Mesa:

- Carlos Zambrano's dominant outing, allowing just one hit in six innings of masterful work.

What I disliked from Sunday's Cubs-Angels game in Mesa:

- The angle Felix 'Twisted Nut' Pie took on the one hit Zambrano did give up. Couldn't have played it any worse.

My disagreement with FireJoeMorgan...

Wanted to point you to a post from http://www.firejoemorgan.com/, in which they're ragging on Gordon Wittenmyer ("Pie Taters," written March 13, 2008) from the Chicago Sun-Times for a piece he wrote about Felix Pie.

I didn't agree, so here's the response I wrote them.

*******************

Forgive me, but I'm actually going to defend Wittenmyer.

His point, should you choose to see it, is that the Cubs can find someone to play centerfield who can hit as many home runs as Pie will. For example, Corey Patterson, the former Cub, who was recently available, has been good for about 12-15 homers a year for the last five years. I think it's fair to say that's about what Pie will probably hit this year.

So Wittenmyer's point is that if all Pie is going to do is hit 12-15 homers this year (like Patterson would have), then he wouldn't "be of any use" to them. They could have just kept Patterson a couple years back if they just wanted that.

What makes Pie 'useful' to the Cubs (in comparison to Patterson or other potential centerfielders) is:

* that he (hopefully for us Cubs' fans) won't strike out as much as Patterson.

* or that he'll be able to work the count more than Patterson, by not swinging at pitchers over his head like Corey does.

* or maybe get a bunt down every now and again, like Patterson never could.

* or even hit for a higher average in the No. 8 hole with two outs than Patterson would have, allowing the pitcher to bat and turning the line-up over for the next inning.

That's what Wittenmyer meant by being of use to the Cubs. He's not saying home runs aren't useful; he's just saying other players could provide just as many. Pie becomes useful by doing the other things that those others can't.

Best,
`Ivy Leaguer
www.holycowbell.net

*******************

What do you think? Who's right?

Live Blogging (Cubs v. Brewers) - Part 3

* Wonderful. As soon as I declare the Pie-Fuld duel over, assistant general manager Randy Bush announces that Pie is having surgery today to repair his twisted testicle (I'd like to nominate 'bent-up ball-sack' as the slang term for that injury). He'll probably miss 3-5 days.

* Rich Hill, trying to pitch out of another jam, just walked pitcher Dave Bush with two outs. Inexcusable. And Lou let him know that. He just got yanked.

* I know it's spring training and numbers don't mean much. But somebody, somewhere should give some props to minor league infielder Casey McGehee. Kid's hitting .636 (7-for-11, 3 doubles) for the Cubs this spring.

Live Blogging (Cubs v. Brewers) - Part 2

* I think we can officially end any talks of a Felix Pie-Sam Fuld centerfield battle. Pie is hitting .321 (9-for-28, 2 homers, 6 runs batted in) this spring, while Fuld is struggling at .133 (2-for-15, 2 singles).

I like Fuld. He played great in the Arizona Fall League and everyone remembers the great catch late last season. But this battle's over.

* This quickly turned into an awful outing for Rich Hill. In the third inning, he gave four runs on four hits and a walk. And the Brewers weren't getting cheap hits. There were some hellacious rods down the line.

Hill walked off the field at the end of the inning looking at his fingers. Wonder if he had a blister or something else bothering him?

* Loved this exchange between Len Kasper and pitching coach Larry Rothschild:
Len: "Larry, has Lou (Pinella) mellowed?"
Larry: "Next question..."

Observations from the Ballpark (Part II)

Caught the Cubs-Royals today in Suprise, Arizona. Cubs were flat-out dominant. Won it 13-1. Out-hit the Royals 21-2. Looked like the varsity against the JV. And the scary part is that the Royals played most of their regulars!

Here are my observations:

Offense:

Awesome. The Cubs scored in every inning except two and did so without the need for the long ball. Eric Patterson hit a two-run homer late, but for the most part, the explosion came mostly from line drives ripped into the gap.

Daryle Ward was unstoppable. Went 4-for-4 and every single hit was powdered. Felix Pie and Patterson shot balls into the gap a few times, and Alex Cintron, Alfonso Soriano and Matt Murton hit balls hard as well.

I really like Micah Hoffpauir. He won't make the team because he's behind Derrek Lee (and Ward and Mark DeRosa can back Lee up), but he hits a ton. Might be valuable come September as a late-season call-up when rosters expand.

Defense:

Pretty much perfect. Team made every play it needed to. Only play of note was a double by Alex Gordon; Sam Fuld played the ball off the wall extremely well.

Pitching:

Ryan Dempster started and his numbers will look pretty good (4 innings, 1 hit, 1 run) and he didn't pitch badly. But I did find one thing worrisome and I'll get to that in the "concerned me" section.

Otherwise, the bullpen was filthy good. Kerry Wood looked unhittable in an inning of work. Carlos Marmol closed the game with a 1-2-3 inning. Even Michael Wuertz and Neal Cotts worked scoreless innings. Kansas City looked overmatched.

Impressed me: Pie and Patterson, two players who look like they may have turned the corner. Patterson looks very comfortable both at the plate and in the field (he played nine innings at second base today). Kid brings a lot to the table.

And Pie is a different player from last year. Much more under control at the plate. Shorter, more compact swing and it's making a huge difference. He's crushed the ball at every game I've been to.

Depressed me: Kansas City, as a whole. What a terrible team.

Starting pitcher Brett Tomko got lit up like the Fourth of July. But it didn't help that the defense behind him was wearing iron gloves. They dropped a couple flyballs and did nothing to pick Tomko up.

Particularly bad was former Cub Mark Grudzielanek. Dropped a flyball, made a throwing error, had the ball fall out of his hand on a relay-play. Atrocious.

Intrigued me: It's clear that Lou Pinella and Jim Hendry are going to have some tough decisions to make... and that's ideal. I've now seen three of the four pitchers battling for two spots (I've only missed Jason Marquis) and they've all impressed me. Picking between Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall, Ryan Dempster and Marquis aint going to be easy.

Nor will it be easy to say goodbye to either Cintron, Ronny Cedeno, Mike Fontenot or Patterson. They all can't make this team, but each is hitting a ton and playing solid defense.

Concerned me: All right, here's what worried me about Dempster. He was in control for the first two innings. But then, in the top of the third inning, the Cubs sent nine hitters to the plate. It was a long inning and I was anxious to see how Dempster would react to the long layoff. He reacted, well, horribly. Walk. Double. Hit batter. Hard-hit groundout. Walk. Double play. He completely lost command and got bailed out by a ground ball hit right at someone.

In a tight race between four pitchers, it's the small things that will make a difference... and that seemed like a big deal to me.

Squeeze Bunts...

* The Baltimore Sun is reporting that trade talks between the O's and Cubs have stalled. Like we had guessed, it appears Ronny Cedeno and Sean Gallagher would likely be involved in any deal for Brian Roberts (along with pitching prospect Donald Veal). But the sticking point, according to the Sun, is a fourth player. And the Birds are dreaming big, asking about Felix Pie and Tyler Colvin.

Two words: No way.

* There's also talking of adding in aging veterans Jay Payton and Jason Marquis to the deal, with Payton heading to the Windy City and Marquis getting moved to Baltimore.

When you trade crap for crap, you still have crap.

* Why does everyone have a problem with Joe Buck? Was reading a message board on CBS Sportsline, where the question was posed: Who are your favorite and least favorite broadcasters? Scores of people were listing Buck as the worst. I don't get it. Even if he does have a St. Louis pedigree, I think the guy's among the best in the game (and he's just as good at football as he is at baseball). Smart. Incisive. Doesn't get in the way of the game. Maybe someone can clue me in...

* Chalk it up to Dusty being Dusty. Two days ago we were singing the praises of rookie first baseman Joey Votto. Yesterday, Dusty was bashing the guy.

* Aramis Ramirez saw his first spring training action on Friday. I say his health is among the top 10 keys to a successful 2008...

A lineup shift...

* I said here (at the bottom of the post) that - while I love Kosuke Fukudome - I don't see him as a No. 3 hitter. Apparently Lou Pinella saw the same thing. He's considering moving Fukudome to the No. 2 hole and seeing if "he might be more comfortable there."

Fukudome's strengths seem to be his plate discipline (he has a great eye), his ability to make solid contact and his decent speed. In the two games I saw in person, though, I did not see the potential for tremendous power. I don't foresee more than about 15 home runs from him and he seems better suited to be a table-setter than a big basher.

Another thought: He does seem like someone who can still hit well from behind in the count. That might allow Alfonso Soriano (hitting in the No. 1 hole) to run a little bit early in the count without fear of putting Fukudome at a serious disadvantage.

So No. 2 is far more logical to me than No. 3. Big fan of the move...

* The gang over at Wrigleyville commented on my thoughts on Ronny Cedeno, speculating that his nine innings in centerfield yesterday might have been a way to showcase him to the Orioles in a trade for Brian Roberts. Very possible. They also think Murton might be involved in a deal. I wonder if Ronny Cedeno, Matt Murton and Sean Gallagher might be enough to get it done. I hope so, but I doubt it. I think the O's would want at least one of the top (likely pitching) prospects as well (I don't consider Gallagher one of them).

* Can anyone think of a worse-sounding injury than Felix Pie's "TWISTED TESTICLE?" I've been trying all morning to concoct one; it's damn near impossible. Any ideas?